2The Conference Board of Canada; Ottawa, Ontario-Canada
3Division of Health Management, Başkent University; Ankara-Turkey
4Economic Modeling Center, Global Health Economics, Amgen Economic Modeling Center of Excellence; Zug-Switzerland
5Health Policy and Reimbursement, Amgen; İstanbul-Turkey
6Value, Access and Policy, Amgen, Inc, Thousand Oaks; California-United States of America
Abstract
Objective: This study aims to estimate the current and future burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Turkey.
Materials and Methods: A burden-of-disease model was developed that included inputs on population growth, prevalence, and incidence of ischemic disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), prevalence of modifiable risk factors, mortality rates, and relationship between risk factors and IHD/CeVD. Direct costs to the public health-care system and indirect costs from lost production due to premature mortality, hospitalizations, disability, and absenteeism were considered.
Results: We estimated that in 2016, 3.4 million Turkish adults were living with CVD, including 2.5 million affected by IHD, and 0.9 million by CeVD. This prevalence is projected to increase to 5.4 million by 2035. The economic burden of CVD was estimated at US$10.2 billion in 2016, projected to increase twofold to US$19.4 billion by 2035.
Conclusion: Our study confirms that the current burden of CVD is significant, and that it is projected to increase at a steep rate over the next two decades. This growing burden of disease will likely create significant pressure on the public health-care system in the form of direct health-care costs, as well as on society in the form of lost productivity.