Trends in the Incidence and Mortality Rates of Myocarditis in the Chinese Population During 1990-2019: Joinpoint Regression and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Background: This study aimed to analyze trends in the burden of myocarditis in the Chinese population during 1990-2019.

Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database aims to assess the burden of various diseases and injuries on a global scale, and the contribution of relevant risk factors to the burden of disease was also included. In this study, we collected age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for myocarditis in China from 1990 to 2019 using GBD 2019. The age–period–cohort model was utilized to calculate local drift, longitudinal age patterns, as well as the ratios of period and cohort.

Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of myocarditis in both men and women presented a decreasing trend during 1990-2019 [average annual percentage change (AAPC) of men = −0.202 (95% CI: −0.213 to −0.191); AAPC of women = −0.263 (95% CI: −0.27 to −0.256) for incidence; AAPC of men = −0.233 (95% CI: −0.371 to −0.094); AAPC of women = −0.872 (95% CI: −1.112 to −0.631) for mortality]. Longitudinal age curves showed that myocarditis incidence and mortality rates elevated with age among individuals aged 15-95+ years, with a higher growth rate in men than in women. The period and cohort ratios for both men and women showed similar decreasing trends. Local drift values for the incidence and mortality rates of myocarditis showed an increasing trend among individuals aged 70-75 years and above.

Conclusion: Although the overall burden of myocarditis in China presented a decreasing trend during 1990-2019, the male and elderly populations still have a higher risk of incidence and mortality. Therefore, it is essential for the health-care system to introduce effective prevention and treatment measures for myocarditis.